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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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