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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE THE SELLING PRICE OF COAL TO MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia to review to revise methodology to determine the selling price of co ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
At a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terroris ...
Tuesday, 29 March 16
BULK CARRIER VENTILATION - CAPTAIN PAUL R. WALTON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Moisture damage is a source of many cargo claims. Claimants allege that it is brought about by the ship’s failure t ...
Monday, 28 March 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED SLIGHTLY FIRM; CS 57 INDEX CLOSED WEAK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.03 percent week over week to averaging $38.91 per ton on this past Thursday, ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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