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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE THE SELLING PRICE OF COAL TO MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia to review to revise methodology to determine the selling price of co ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
At a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terroris ...
Tuesday, 29 March 16
BULK CARRIER VENTILATION - CAPTAIN PAUL R. WALTON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Moisture damage is a source of many cargo claims. Claimants allege that it is brought about by the ship’s failure t ...
Monday, 28 March 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED SLIGHTLY FIRM; CS 57 INDEX CLOSED WEAK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.03 percent week over week to averaging $38.91 per ton on this past Thursday, ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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