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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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