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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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