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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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