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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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