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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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