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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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