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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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