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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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