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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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