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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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