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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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