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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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