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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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