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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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