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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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