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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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