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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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