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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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