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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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