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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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