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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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