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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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