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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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