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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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