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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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