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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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