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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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