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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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