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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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