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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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