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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 February 16
TAP ON OPPORTUNITIES IN GROWING ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND NEW COAL POWER PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES - IBC
Tap on Opportunities in Growing Electricity Demand and New Coal Power Project Developments in the Philippines
Coal Power Generation 2016
19- ...
Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substa ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CALL THE DOCTOR! SHIPPING'S MEDICAL DRAMA UNFOLDS......- CLARKSONS
The recycling market has started 2016 with a bang, with a huge volume of tonnage heading to demolition facilities. Many of the key shipping markets ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CS 42 COAL INDEX ROSE 0.07% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.96 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 15 February 16
BALTIC INDEX MARGINALLY ROSE BY A POINT D-D; CAPESIZE INDEX DOWN 13 POINTS W-W; PANAMAX INDEX UP 29 POINTS W-W
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The BDI, The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measu ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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