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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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