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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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