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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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