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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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