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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 March 16
ADANI GLOBAL BAGS 0.26 MILLION TONS OF COAL CONTRACT FROM LANKA COAL COMPANY
COALspot.com: Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited, Sri Lanka has awarded 260,000 +/- 10% tons of Power plant 6300 GAR calorific value coal to Adan ...
Friday, 11 March 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY 0.5 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.6 million shor ...
Friday, 11 March 16
FORTESCUE'S MOU WITH VALE COULD STRENGTHEN ITS BUSINESS PROFILE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Australia-based Fortescue Metals Group Limited's (BB+/Negative) memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Br ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficu ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 23% IN 2015, AS COAL IMPORTS REMAINED STEADY
COALspot.com: The United States remains a net exporter of coal, exporting 74.0 million short tons (MMst) and importing 11 MMst in 2015.
Accord ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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