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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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