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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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