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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 March 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.78 MMT OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped AU$1,110.5 mi ...
Tuesday, 15 March 16
ADARO ENERGY LOWERED ITS COAL CASH COST BY 16% TO US$ 27.98 PER TONE IN 2015
Difficult Coal Market Condition Persists in 2015, Adaro Lowers Costs, Reduces Capital Spending and Maintains Solid Liquidity.
PT Adaro E ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE CS 50 INDEX ROSE $0.16 OR, 0.41% TO $38.82 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.41 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE CONTINUED TO ROSE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rise this week helped by higher rates for pa ...
Saturday, 12 March 16
PLN, COAL COMPANIES IN TALKS ABOUT PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Following a study that predicted that Indonesia would struggle to provide coal for its power stations in the near future, the government will facil ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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