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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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