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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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