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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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