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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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