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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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