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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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