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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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