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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
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Showing 2726 to 2730 news of total 6871 |
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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