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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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