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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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