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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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