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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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