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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
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Showing 2816 to 2820 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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